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Ontario general election, 2011

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Ontario general election, 2011

Ontario general election, 2011
October 6, 2011
107 seats in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since December 1, 1996 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Ottawa South Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre
Last election 71 seats, 42.3% 26 seats, 31.6% 10 seats, 16.8%
Seats before 70 25 10
Seats won 53 37 17
Seat change -17 +12 +7
Popular vote 1,625,102 1,530,076 981,508
Percentage 37.65% 35.45% 22.74%
Swing -4.6pp +3.8pp +5.9pp

Premier before election

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

Elected Premier

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

The 40th Ontario general election was held on October 6, 2011 to elect members of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The Ontario Liberal Party was elected to a minority government, with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC Party) serving as the Official Opposition and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) serving as a third party.

Under amendments passed by the Legislature in December 2005, Ontario elections are now held on fixed dates: the first Thursday of October every four years.[1] The writ of election was issued by Lieutenant Governor David Onley on September 7, 2011.

The election saw a record low voter turnout of 49.2%.[2]

Timeline

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Party leadership

In March 2009, PC Party leader John Tory stepped down as leader, with Tim Hudak elected to be his successor. Also in March 2009, Andrea Horwath replaced Howard Hampton as leader of the NDP at the leadership election. Thus, both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP went into the election with a new leader. Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong stepped down in November 2009; their leadership convention confirmed Mike Schreiner as their new leader. Dalton McGuinty won 95 percent support for his leadership at an Ontario Liberal annual general meeting after the 2007 election, and ran again in 2011.

Party standings

Summary

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2007-2011
Party 2007 Gain from(loss to) 2011
Lib PC NDP
Liberal 71 (11) (7) 53
Progressive Conservative 26 11 37
New Democratic 10 7 17
Total 107 18 (11) (7) 107

Detailed analysis

 Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario election results
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
 2007   Dissol.   2011  Change # % Change
Liberal Dalton McGuinty 107 71 70 53 -18 1,625,102 37.65% -4.7%
Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak 107 26 25 37 +11 1,530,076 35.45% +3.8%
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 107 10 10 17 +7 981,508 22.74% +5.9%
Green Mike Schreiner 107 - - 126,021 2.92% -5.1%
Libertarian Sam Apelbaum 51 - - 19,447 0.45% +0.3%
Family Coalition Phil Lees 31 - - 9,524 0.22% -0.6%
Freedom Paul McKeever 57 - - 9,253 0.21% +0.1%
  Independents and no affiliation 36 - - 9,021 0.21% –    
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 9 - - 1,162 0.03% -0.01%
Northern Ontario Heritage Edward Deibel 3 - - 676 0.02%  
Special Needs Danish Ahmed 4 - - 667 0.02% +0.01%
Reform Bradley J. Harness 4 - - 647 0.01% +0.01%
Paramount Canadians Ranvir Dogra 4 - - 562 0.01%  
Confederation of Regions vacant 3 - - 559 0.01% –    
Socialist Michael Laxer 5 - - 519 0.01%  
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 4 - - 386 < .01%  
Vegan Environmental Paul Figueiras 3 - - 366 < .01%  
Republican Trueman Tuck 3 - - 232 < .01% –    
The Only Party Michael Green 3 - - 188 < .01%  
Human Rights Marilyn McCormick 2 - - 170 < .01%  
Canadians' Choice Bahman Yazdanfar 3 - - 156 < .01%  
Paupers John Turmel 2 - - 140 < .01%  
  Vacant 2  
Total 655 107 107 107 4,316,382  100%     -2.43%
Source: "40TH GENERAL ELECTION - SUMMARY OF VALID BALLOTS CAST".  

Candidates and local results

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green Type of poll Margin of error
Angus Reid October 4–5, 2011 PDF 37 33 26 3 Online 3.6%
EKOS October 3–5, 2011 PDF 37.7 31.5 23.3 5.9 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Forum Research October 4, 2011 HTML 37 36 23 3 Interactive voice response 3.1%
Angus Reid October 3–4, 2011 PDF 33 36 26 5 Online 2.1%
Abacus Data October 3–4, 2011 HTML 37 34 24 4 Online 3.1%
EKOS October 2–4, 2011 PDF 39.0 29.7 23.1 6.6 Interactive voice response 2.2%
Nanos Research October 2–3, 2011 PDF 40.1 33.0 23.2 2.8 Telephone 4.2%
EKOS October 2–3, 2011 PDF 39.1 29.1 24.5 6.0 Interactive voice response 2.9%
Nanos Research October 1–3, 2011 PDF 37.7 33.2 25.8 2.1 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid September 30 – October 3, 2011 PDF 41 31 25 3 Telephone 3.1%
Nanos Research September 30 – October 2, 2011 PDF 35.9 36.4 25.7 1.2 Telephone 3.5%
EKOS September 29 – October 2, 2011 PDF 37.8 30.6 22.7 7.3 Interactive voice response 2.8%
Nanos Research September 29 – October 1, 2011 PDF 36.5 34 26.8 1.9 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research September 28–30, 2011 PDF 38.0 35.3 24.6 1.8 Telephone 3.5%
Angus Reid September 28–30, 2011 PDF 33 34 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 28–29, 2011 PDF 32 34 29 5 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research September 28–29, 2011 PDF 37.7 34.4 25.5 2.0 Telephone 4.3%
Environics September 26–28, 2011 HTML 35 36 25 3 Online
Abacus Data September 23–25, 2011 PDF 33 37 23 6 Online 2.9%
EKOS September 21–25, 2011 PDF 34.9 31.4 24.7 7.6 Interactive voice response 2.3%
Forum Research September 22–23, 2011 HTML 35 35 23 5 Interactive voice response 0.5%
Angus Reid September 13–15, 2011 HTML 32 36 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 12–15, 2011 PDF 33 36 26 5 Online 3.1%
Abacus Data September 9–12, 2011 HTML 32 41 20 6 Online 3.2%
Nanos Research September 10–11, 2011 PDF 38.1 34.7 24.3 2.7 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid September 7–11, 2011 HTML 38 37 24 1 Telephone 3.5%
Harris-Decima August 25 – September 4, 2011 HTML 40 29 24 6 Telephone 3.8%
Nanos Research August 30 – September 1, 2011 PDF 31.9 35.4 22.8 4.1 Telephone 3.1%
Forum Research August 29–30, 2011 HTML 30 35 26 7 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Angus Reid August 25–28, 2011 PDF 31 38 24 6 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research August 10–13, 2011 PDF 37.6 42.1 16.2 3.4 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid July 29 – August 4, 2011 HTML 36 38 23 3 Telephone 4.9%
Forum Research July 27–28, 2011 HTML 28 38 24 7 Interactive voice response 2.1%
Ipsos Reid June 7 – July 7, 2011 HTML 31 42 22 5 Telephone 3.5%
Forum Research June 21–22, 2011 HTML 26 41 22 8 Interactive voice response 1.7%
Ipsos Reid May 17 – June 9, 2011 HTML 34 40 20 6 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research May 14–15, 2011 PDF 34 41 19 5 Telephone 4.7%
Nanos Research March 8–11, 2011 PDF 35 44 16 4 Telephone 4.9%
Nanos Research January 31 – February 3, 2011 PDF 39 43 13 5 Telephone 4.7%
Ipsos Reid January 20, 2011 HTML 35 38 17 9 Telephone
Ipsos Reid November 18, 2010 HTML 32 41 20 7
Angus Reid September 28, 2010 PDF 29 41 22 8 Online 3.5%
Ipsos Reid August 21, 2010 HTML 35 36 18 11
Ipsos Reid June 19, 2010 HTML 37 32 20 11
Nanos Research February 9–10, 2010 PDF 41.4 37.9 12.8 7.9 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid December 13, 2009 HTML 38 34 15 10
Angus Reid December 4, 2009 PDF 27 41 20 11
Nanos Research October 24–25, 2009 PDF 36.6 35 17.2 9.8 Telephone 4.8%
Environics October 2009 HTML 32 37 19 11
Environics June 2009 HTML 44 32 15 8
Environics April 2009 HTML 44 29 17 11
Environics January 2009 HTML 45 32 12 11
Environics November 2008 HTML 35 30 21 13
Environics June 2008 HTML 41 31 16 12
Environics March 2008 HTML 38 30 19 12
Environics January 2008 HTML 45 34 18 2
Environics November 2007 HTML 44 31 22 3
Election 2007 October 10, 2007 PDF 42.3 31.6 16.8 8.0

Media endorsements

Liberals

Progressive Conservatives

Did not endorse

References

  1. ^ "Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2005". Service Ontario e-laws. December 15, 2005. Retrieved May 19, 2008. 
  2. ^ "Ontario election turnout hits record low".  
  3. ^ Robert Benzie and Susan Delacourt. "Ontario cabinet minister to seek federal seat." Toronto Star. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/907928--ontario-cabinet-minister-to-seek-federal-seat
  4. ^ a b Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2011). "Retiring Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier dead". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  5. ^ "Elections Ontario - When to Vote". Wemakevotingeasy.ca. 2011-09-30. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  6. ^ "Ontario leaders' debate set for Sept. 27".  
  7. ^ "Longtime Pickering politician calls it quits". Pickering News Advertiser.
  8. ^ CTV staff (November 29, 2010). "Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier retires". CTV Ottawa (Ottawa). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  9. ^ Liberal MPP Caplan not running again "Toronto Star"
  10. ^ Examiner staff (January 21, 2011). "Aileen Carroll won't seek a second term". The Barrie Examiner (Barrie, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  11. ^ QMI Agency (November 25, 2010). "Hoy won't seek re-election". London Free Press (London, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  12. ^ Sherwin, Fred (April 13, 2011). "Veteran MPP calls it a day after 41 years in politics". Orléans Online (Ottawa). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  13. ^ Chant, Miranda (November 9, 2011). "Elgin-Middlesex-London MPP Calls it Quits". News/Talk 1290 CJBK (London, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  14. ^ The Canadian Press (March 25, 2011). "Veteran MPP Gerry Phillips the latest Ontario Liberal not seeking re-election". iPolitics.ca. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  15. ^ Benzie, Robert; Rob Ferguson (June 10, 2011). "Liberals lose a star: Sandra Pupatello won’t seek re-election". Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 10, 2011. 
  16. ^ Blizzard, Christine (January 13, 2011). "MPP David Ramsay won't run again". The Toronto Sun (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  17. ^ Liberal backbencher Tony Ruprecht won’t seek re-election "Toronto Star"
  18. ^ Cramer, Brandi (November 19, 2011). "Smith steps aside: MPP recalls her accomplishments and regrets". North Bay Nugget (North Bay, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  19. ^ Nugget, Carol-Ann (October 14, 2010). "MPP Gerry Martiniuk to retire from provincial politics in 2011". Cambridge Now (Cambridge, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  20. ^ Benzie, Robert (July 5, 2010). "Conservative MPP Bill Murdoch to ride off into the sunset". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  21. ^ The Canadian Press (February 21, 2011). "MPP Savoline will not seek re-election". The Hamilton Spectator (Hamilton). Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  22. ^ "Veteran Ontario MPP Norm Sterling loses bitter PC nomination battle ". Globe and Mail.
  23. ^ Talaga, Tanya (June 3, 2011). "NDP's Peter Kormos to retire". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 3, 2011. 
  24. ^ Robert, Benzie (July 30, 2011). "Former NDP leader Howard Hampton quits". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved July 30, 2011. 
  25. ^ http://www.simcoe.com/opinion/editorial/article/1136757--liberals-deserve-another-term
  26. ^ Canada. "Dalton McGuinty's Liberals the best choice for Ontario's challenges". Toronto: The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  27. ^ "Liberals, despite faults, are the best option". TheSpec. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  28. ^ Ottawa Citizen October 4, 2011. "Hold your nose and vote Liberal". Ottawacitizen.com. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  29. ^ "Liberals best fit for Sudbury - Point of View - The Sudbury Star - Ontario, CA". The Sudbury Star. 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  30. ^ "Liberals best choice for Ontario’s future". Toronto: thestar.com. September 30, 2011. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  31. ^ "Editorial: Liberals offer voters best hope". TheRecord. 2011-09-30. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  32. ^ The Windsor Star October 1, 2011 (2011-10-01). "Ontario votes". Windsorstar.com. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  33. ^ "EDITORIAL: Vote for change". BramptonGuardian Article. 2011-09-29. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  34. ^ "Progressive Conservatives the party to lead Ontario". DurhamRegion Article. 2011-09-29. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  35. ^ "On Thursday, Ontarians should vote Conservative". Nationalpost.com. 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  36. ^ "Ontario deserves better | Editorial | Opinion". Toronto Sun. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  37. ^ "Editorial: None of the above | Editorial | Opinion". Ottawa Sun. 2011-10-01. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 

External links

  • Elections Ontario
  • Elections Ontario, 2011 General Election
  • Election Almanac - Ontario Provincial Election 2011
  • Detailed interactive map of poll-level results
General elections
By-elections
Referendums
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