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Country risk

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Title: Country risk  
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Subject: Credit risk, CRA, Government risk, Richard O'Brien (economist), Commodity risk
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Country risk

Mean Euromoney Country Risk, March 2000 - March 2011

Country risk refers to the risk of investing or lending in a country, arising from possible changes in the business environment that may adversely affect operating profits or the value of assets in the country. For example, financial factors such as currency controls, devaluation or regulatory changes, or stability factors such as mass riots, civil war and other potential events contribute to companies' operational risks. This term is also sometimes referred to as political risk; however, country risk is a more general term that generally refers only to risks affecting all companies operating within or involved with a particular country.

Political risk analysis providers and credit rating agencies use different methodologies to assess and rate countries' comparative risk exposure. Credit rating agencies tend to use quantitative econometric models and focus on financial analysis, whereas political risk providers tend to use qualitative methods, focusing on political analysis. However, there is no consensus on methodology in assessing credit and political risks.

Contents

  • Country risk ratings 1
  • Partial list of country risk premium 2
  • Partial list of credit risk rating agencies 3
  • Partial list of political risk analysis organizations 4
  • Downloadable Country Analysis and Reports 5
  • References 6

Country risk ratings

Country risk rankings H1 2014 The least-risky countries for investment
Rank Rank change Country Overall score
1 0 Norway 90.86
2 0 Switzerland 88.69
3 0 Singapore 87.91
4 0 Luxembourg 85.71
5 +2 Sweden 84.11
6 0 Denmark 83.41
7 -2 Finland 82.77
8 0 Netherlands 82.69
9 0 Canada 81.96
10 +1 Australia 81.72
Score out of 100. Rank change to previous quarter.

Source: Euromoney Country Risk - published October 2014. [1]

The least-risky countries for investment. Ratings are further broken down into components including political risk, economic risk. Euromoney's quarterly country risk index "Country risk survey" monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries. Results focus foremost on economics, specifically sovereign default risk and/or payment default risk for exporters (a.k.a. "trade credit" risk).

Annual Trend in Euromoney Country Risk, March 2000 - March 2011

Partial list of country risk premium

  • List of Credit Default Swap premiums of various countries (German) and English Translation Both links are dead

Partial list of credit risk rating agencies

  • Fitch Ratings (U.S.)
  • Moody's (U.S.)
  • Standard & Poor's (U.S)
  • CTRISKS (Greater China)

Partial list of political risk analysis organizations

  • BMI Research
  • Country Risk Solutions
  • Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Eurasia Group
  • Maplecroft
  • Oxford Analytica
  • The PRS Group, Inc.

Downloadable Country Analysis and Reports

  • The Benche Analysis & Reports
  • Euler Hermes Country Reports
  • Maplecroft
  • The PRS Group, Inc.
  • Xiphias Consulting

References

  1. ^ [2]: Survey which monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries, according to ratings agencies and market experts. The information is compiled from Risk analysts; poll of economic projections; on GNI; World Bank’s Global Development Finance data; Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch IBCA; OECD consensus groups (source: ECGD); the US Exim Bank and Atradius UK; heads of debt syndicate and loan syndications; Atradius, London Forfaiting, Mezra Forfaiting and WestLB.
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