This primer is a useful tool both for individuals who are not “space aware”—unacquainted with space capabilities, organizations, and operations—and for those who are “space aware,” especially individuals associated with the space community, but not familiar with space capabilities, organizations, and operations outside their particular areas of expertise. It is your guide and your invitation to all the excitement and opportunity of space....

In this thesis, we propose a new manner of targeting economies—a holistic approach that accounts for the linkages between infrastructure elements and their resultant synergies. We first establish a theoretical foundation for targeting based on complexity science. This discipline examines the nature of complex, interconnected systems such as economies. Next, we demonstrate that economies are indeed highly interconnected systems. These linkages cannot be ignored in the targeting process. Finally, we tentatively propose a computer algorithm capable of targeting multiple, interacting infrastructure elements. The technique employs a genetic algorithm coupled to standard industrial analysis programs. When implemented, this computer technique should dramatically improve the effectiveness of economic targeting....

1 LOOKING BEYOND THE WEB . . . . . 1 Objectives and Scope . . . . . 2 A Convergence of Technologies . . . . 3 Thesis Organization . . . . . 4 Notes . . . . . 5 2 COMPLEXITY THEORY AND ECONOMIC TARGETING . . . . 7 Complex Systems Defined . . . . 7 Characteristics of Complex Systems . . . . . 10 Summary . . . . . 18 Notes . . . . . 19 3 SYNERGIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS . . . . 25 Targeting Issues . . . . . 25 Dissecting an Economy . . . . 27 Summary . . . . . 31 Notes . . . . . 32 4 MODELING AND SIMULATION TECHNIQUES . . . . 35 Targeting Philosophies . . . . 36 Numerical Techniques . . . . 39 Targeting Economic Sectors—A Proposed Numerical Simulation . . . . . 49 Philosophical Aspects of Computer-based Targeting . . . . 57 Summary . . . . . 58 Notes . . . . . 58 5 SYNERGY TABLES . . . . 65 Notes . . . . . 71 6 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 73 Recommendations . . . . 74 Final Remarks . . . . 74 Notes . . . . . 75...

Information is one of the most, if not the most, essential elements of combat capability. Because telecommunications affects every aspect of a society, and is probably the most important medium which military information is exchanged, this thesis provides an understanding of the telecommunications system and how best to exploit it across the spectrum of conflict. I examine the system’s vulnerabilities to both lethal and nonlethal attack mechanisms. While the ability to employ nonlethal technologies are currently limited, I recommend pursuing a strong research and development program to acquire this capability. The reason is that they provide additional policy options to deal with conflict, they are cheap, and because research may not only discover unanticipated capabilities for the US, but also identify countermeasures to protect our own systems. This thesis concludes by offering guidelines to help determine whether to exploit telecommunications with either lethal or nonlethal attack strategies....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . 1 Notes . . . 3 2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS . . . . . 5 The Modern Communications System . . . . . 6 Vulnerability Analysis . . . . . . 17 Targeting . . . . 23 Quantification . . . . . 29 Conclusion . . . 32 Notes . . . 35 3 DISABLING WEAPONS . . . . . . 38 Definition . . . . . 39 History And Legal Considerations . . . . . 41 Conventional And Disabling Kill Mechanisms . . . 44 Advantages/Disadvantages . . . . . . 49 Conclusion . . . . 53 Notes . . . . 55 4 GUIDANCE FOR CAMPAIGN PLANNING . . . . . . 57 Planning Factors . . . . 57 Conclusion . . . . . 61 Notes . . . . . 62...

Lack of investment in future agile combat-support technologies could lead to a strategic surprise that diverts military attention and resources from critical air, space, and cyber operations. Looking to the national security environment in 2030, this research explores one technology—the microbial fuel cell (MFC)—that gives life to self-contained facilities decoupled from vulnerable supply lines and infrastructure networks. MFCs can dispose of waste (sewage, food scraps, gray water, etc.) while producing clean water (up to 70 percent of required volumes) and power (up to 600 watts per person). Using relevance tree methodology, the research concludes that USAF research and development investment alone will not bring MFCs to fruition. A successful strategy for MFCs will be collaborative, addressing not only the technological barriers but also the key social, industrial, and political hurdles to enabling this capability....

The attractiveness of Adam Lowther’s study of American nuclear weapons policy is that it explains the complexities of the issue in very clear terms. It will help all readers understand the debate. In particular, it frames the issue of nuclear weapons in relationship to the most basic concept of primary importance—how we view American strength in the world....

DISCLAIMER . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . v ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . .vii SUMMARY . . . . .ix CHALLENGING NUCLEAR ABOLITION . . . 1 Nuclear Modernization . . . .3 Nuclear Abolition . . . .9 NOTES . . . .31 APPENDIX . . . .37...

The space industrial sector has been of particular concern given its intimate connection with national security operations and plans, its broad importance for science and technology, and its competitive position toward foreign governments and producers. However, the industry has been struggling, and without US government actions it may not have the depth and vitality to provide affordable solutions to future national security requirements....

This study analyzes how the processes used in the national security planning influence the results. It begins by discussing the nature of strategic planning for national security, eventually defining it as a disciplined effort involving the allocation of resources to programmed activities aimed at achieving a set of objectives by integrating major goals, policies, and action sequences into a cohesive whole. The next step in this study defines several alternative methods for conducting strategic planning, including how using those methods could influence the outcome. The final section discusses the implications of the different approaches, including the recommendation that any review contemplating major changes in national security policy follow a more sequential and top-down process with clear guidance given to participants....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . 5 2 NATIONAL SECURITY PLANNING PROCESSES . . . . . 7 Notes . . . . 12 3 THE NEW LOOK OF 1952–53 . . . . . . 15 Notes . . . . 29 4 THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW OF 1996–97 . . . .33 Notes . . . . 51 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . 53 Notes . . . . 56...

A new ASAT policy seems appropriate as the US faces an entirely new, but uncertain, threat with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the rise of a multipolar world. Analyzing the ASAT debate from the past and the dynamics of the emerging space environment and threat can help in formulating that new ASAT policy—a continued ASAT research and development program, short of production and deployment, and arms control combined with collective security to diminish threat uncertainty. As the US reduces defense spending and force structure, such a policy would serve the national interests of the United States as the multipolar world develops....

1 SETTING THE STAGE . . . . . 1 ASAT’s Past Arguments—For and Against . . . . . 1 ASAT’s Arguments—Today and Tomorrow . . . . . 3 Notes . . . . . 4 2 CONSIDERING THE ROLE AND VALUE OF MILITARY SATELLITES . . . 5 Notes . . . . . 8 3 ASAT’S GENESIS: THE ARGUMENTS BEGIN . . . 9 Early Arguments for ASAT . . . . . 9 Eisenhower Administration Hedges Its Bets . . . . 10 Resisting ASAT . . . . 10 The Rise of the Satellite Interceptor . . . . . 12 Terminating the Satellite Interceptor . . . . 13 Hedging Bets . . . . . 13 Reconsidering ASAT’s Need . . . . . 14 Summarizing the Early Days . . . . 14 Notes . . . . . 15 4 THE SOPHISTICATION OF THE ASAT CONTROVERSY . . . . 17 Soviets Initiate an ASAT Program . . . . . . 17 Revitalizing the US ASAT—The Carter “Two-Track” Policy . . . . . 18 Soviet Initiatives—And the Reagan Response . . . 20 Soviet Satellites—How Threatening Are They . . . 21 Our Growing Dependence on Satellites . . . 22 Congress Prevails—Constraining the US ASAT . . . . . . 24 Summarizing the Carter and Reagan Years . . . . 24 Notes . . . . . 25 5 CHANGING STRATEGIES . . . 27 Notes . . . . . 29 6 ASAT...

This study, Blue Horizons, was commissioned by the United States Air Force (USAF) chief of staff to provide “a new look at the future.” Specifically, the chief of staff asked the research team to provide “a common understanding of future strategic and technological trends for Air Force leaders to make better decisions.” The chief also sought to “confirm AU as [the Air Force’s] in-house think tank” and to improve the relevance of Air Force education to the decision making processes in Washington....

CHAPTER 1—Introduction . . . .1 Methodology . . . .1 Overview . . . . . .2 CHAPTER 2—alternate futures . . . . 3 Peer China . . . . .3 A Path toward a Peer China . . . .3 Peer China 2030—Causality and Impact . . . .6 Capabilities Needed to Respond to a Peer China Crisis . . . . .7 Resurgent Russia . . . . .8 The Development of a Resurgent Russia . . . .9 Capabilities to Defend against a Resurgent Russian State . . . . .10 Failed State—Nigeria . . . .11 A Failure We Cannot Ignore . . . .11 Nigeria Shatters . . . . .13 Capabilities Required for Intervention . . . .14 Jihadist Insurgency . . . . .15 Roots of the Schism . . . .16 The Insurgency . . . . 17 Capabilities Needed to Combat the Insurgency . . . 19 Operations Analysis Results . . . .20 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . .22 Recommendations . . . .26 The Way Ahead . . . . 28 Notes . . . . 29 TITLES IN THE OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES . 37...

I developed this thesis because I perceived a void in applying these themes—technology, force reductions, and futuristic visions—to command and control and to related impacts for staff structures. I seek concrete application of these ideas, rather than more rhetoric on what might be . . . someday. This paper represents my effort to peer into our future and see possibilities....

Although cruise missiles are among the newest and most sophisticated weapons fielded by the United States, they possess a rich conceptual and technological heritage . It is important that we understand this heritage as we consider deployment and employment options . It is also important that we understand the developmental process illustrated by the history of the cruise missile. Without the perspective provided by this history, our perceptions of their purpose and use lack depth and insight....