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Lt Col Thomas D. Torkelson claims that the inability of the United States to achieve its stated political objectives in its global war on terror (GWOT) reflects its flawed kinetic-centric military strategy. This study erects a framework of effectiveness utilizing Clausewitzian principles to judge military strategy. By considering the expressed political objectives of the GWOT, the centers of gravity (COG) that military strategy should target within this struggle, and the GWOT’s placement along a Clausewitzian continuum of violence, this paper evaluates US military efforts in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) through the perspective of two opposing models....
1 THE TIMELINESS OF TIMELESSNESS . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2 CLAUSEWITZIAN EFFECTIVENESS . . . . . . .9 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 3 THE KINETIC MODEL AND ITS PREVALENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 4 THE NONKINETIC MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 5 OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM: THE MODELS APPLIED . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 6 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113...
In the aftermath of 9/11, President George W. Bush declared the dawn of a new kind of war. He has repeatedly emphasized that means and measures of success in this new war will differ greatly from wars past. However, if this “war on terrorism” is unlike any other war, then what is it like? From the public statements of high-ranking US officials, metaphorical answers emerge: terrorism is a metastasizing cancer, a plague, a threat from which we are not immune. This study explores the analogies of immunity, infection, and cancer. In doing so it addresses the classic strategic question: What is the nature of the enemy and of the fight?...
1 EMERGING METAPHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 THREATS FROM WITHOUT . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3 THREATS FROM WITHIN . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 4 REDEFINING WAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33...
From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic is an interagency, multidisciplinary collection of 12 essays addressing operational and academic perspectives on the elusive concept of an adversary’s “intent”—its indicators and relation to behavior. It is primarily intended for the operational and policy community in the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, the Department of Homeland Security, and other US government agencies....
DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v ABOUT THE AUTHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PART 1 Operational Perspective: Basic Issues in Gauging Intent 1 From Shoe Leather to Satellites: Shifting the Conceptual Lens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Kathleen L. Kiernan and Daniel J. Mabrey 2 Betting Responsibly: An Effects-Based Thinker’s Framework for Characterizing Intent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Harry A. Foster 3 Gauging the Intent of Nation-States and Nonstate Actors: An Operator’s Perspective . 27 Gary Schaub, Jr. 4 From Observation to Action: Redefining Winning and Sovereignty for the Information Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 John W. Bodnar PART 2 Academic Perspective: Theory and Research in Gauging Intent 5 Anthropological Reflections on Motive and Intent and the Strategic Multilayer Ass...
This study reveals how airpower made four contributions to the collapse of Italy. First, airpower shaped the grand strategy of the western Allied powers in 1943. Second, mainland attacks against rail marshaling yards, ports, and airfields did indirectly contribute militarily to Operations Husky and Avalanche. Third, both American and British strategic bombing contributed to the psychological decapitation and fall of the Fascist government on 25 July 1943. Finally, airpower coerced and aided the interim Marshal Pietro Badoglio’s government to surrender unconditionally and escape to the Allies on 9 September....
INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 AN UNEXAMINED VICTORY . . . . . 3 WHEN GIANTS WALKED THE EARTH . . . . . 7 A TALE OF TWO TIGERS . . . . . 19 WHEN IN ROME . . . . 37 THE DENOUEMENT OF DEFEAT . . . . 57 NO CROWING FOR A NEW DAWN . . . . . 71...
This study seeks to answer the question, “How can airpower help resolve time-induced tensions between political and military imperatives in the conduct of modern warfare?” To answer this question, the study begins by exploring time in the theory of war with an emphasis on time as a fourth dimension that provides a distinct perspective on warfare. With concepts gleaned from theory, this study analyzes the Arab-Israeli War of 1967, the Falklands War, and the Gulf War to determine the role airpower played in overcoming time conflicts and achieving political-military congruence. The study concludes that a time-based strategy, defined as one in which time is a paramount or extremely significant consideration, was the mechanism through which airpower worked to resolve time-induced tensions between political and military imperatives....
1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Overview . . . 1 Methodology . . . . . 2 Definitions . . . . . . 2 Limits of the Argument . . . 3 Notes . . . . . 3 2 TIME IN THE THEORY OF WAR . . . 5 War Theorists on Time . . . . 6 Characteristics of Time in War . . . 7 Physical and Psychological Aspects of Time . . . . . 8 Political and Military Dynamics of Time . . . . . . 9 Summary . . . 10 Notes . . . . . 11 3 THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR OF 1967 . . . . . . 13 The Course of the War . . . . 13 Political Imperatives . . . . . 14 Military Imperatives . . . . . 15 The Time Problem . . . . . . 15 Operational Consequences and Risk . . . . . 16 Airpower’s Role . . . . 17 Summary . . . 19 Notes . . . . . 20 4 THE FALKLANDS WAR . . . . 21 The Course of the War . . . . 21 Political Imperatives . . . . . 22 Military Imperatives . . . . . 24 The Time Problem . . . . . . 25 Operational Consequences and Risk . . . . . 25 The Role of Airpower . . . . . 27 Summary . . . 29 Notes . . . . . 29 5 THE GULF WAR . . . . 31 The Course of the War . . . . 31 Political Imperatives . . . . . 32 Military Imperatives . . . . . 34 The Time Problem . . ....
The initial question of this study concerns the debate between those who believe in a general Islamic threat, as defined most eloquently by Samuel P. Huntington in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, and others who see a small band of religious fanatics who have hijacked Islam from the moderate majority. This question about the source of terrorism has importance to the major Islamic nations as it does for Latin American countries, where Muslims are a largely undistinguishable minority....
DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 UNDERSTANDING “ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Perspectives of Islam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Islamic Anti-Western Rage: Historic and Strategic Explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Islamic Angst: Psychological and Religious Struggles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Clash or Collusion of Islamic Fundamentalists? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3 ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN . . . . . . . . . . 19 Muslim Demographics in the Region . . . . . .20 Islamic Terrorist Attacks in the Region . . . . 21 Islamic Terrorist Support in the Region . . . . 23 Muslims’ Geographic Connection with Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....
Interagency Fratricide: Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors that affected both interagency processes and policy outcomes during the Persian Gulf War (1990–91) and the early stages of the Bosnia crisis (1993–95). Going one-on-one with members of Washington’s policy elite who were involved directly in these two cases, the author demonstrates that the US government’s approach to termination policy proved fragmented and personality driven. She systematically presents evidence to support the study’s conclusion, revealing that the nature of the gap between diplomats and war fighters will consistently produce policies that bring about cease-fire in the form of war termination, but fail to address the underlying causes and conditions that generated conflict (and, potentially, war). These issues must be resolved if the US government hopes to improve the social and political conditions of those embroiled in conflict while at the same time bolstering a security posture favorable to US interests in the aftermath of intervention. The three sections of this work thematically present...
PART I Framing the Problem 1 CONFLICT TERMINATION WITHIN A BUREAUCRATIC ENVIRONMENT . . . . . . . . . 3 Interagency Decision Making via Negotiation. . . . . . . . . . 5 The Efficacy of the Policy-Making Process . . 14 Outline of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2 RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY: INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP CHOICE . . . . . . . 27 Decision-Making Approaches: Units of Analysis as Delimiters . . . . . . . . . 28 Rational Choice Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Groups as “Less than Rational” Actors . . . . .41 Rationale for Alternative Approaches . . . . . .48 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3 CONFLICT TERMINATION MODELS . . . . . . 61 Points or Processes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 Rational Actor Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 4 THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SYSTEM. . . . . . . . . . 85 Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Approach . . . . 85 US Government Decision Making . . . . . . . . 92 ...
The fourth volume, in my book series of “Collected Papers”, includes 100 published and unpublished articles, notes, (preliminary) drafts containing just ideas to be further investigated, scientific souvenirs, scientific blogs, project proposals, small experiments, solved and unsolved problems and conjectures, updated or alternative versions of previous papers, short or long humanistic essays, letters to the editors...
This short technical paper advocates a bootstrapping algorithm from which we can form a statistically reliable opinion based on limited clinically observed data, regarding whether an osteo-hyperplasia could actually be a case of Ewing’s osteosarcoma. The basic premise underlying our methodology is that a primary bone tumour, if it is indeed Ewing’s osteosarcoma, cannot increase in volume beyond some critical limit without showing metastasis. We propose a statistical method to extrapolate such critical limit to primary tumour volume. Our model does not involve any physiological variables but rather is entirely based on time series observations of increase in primary tumour volume from the point of initial detection to the actual detection of metastases....
Collected Eclectic Ideas - preface by the author.............................3 Contents....................................................6 ASTRONOMY..................................14 1. First Lunar Space Base, project proposal, by V. Christianto, Florentin Smarandache..15 2. On Recent Discovery of New Planetoids in the Solar System and Quantization of Celestial System, by V. Christianto, F. Smarandache..................28 3. Open and Solved Elementary Questions in Astronomy, by Florentin Smarandache.. 36 BIOLOGY......................................40 4. Statistical Modeling of Primary Ewing Tumors of the Bone, by Sreepurna Malakar, Florentin Smarandache, Sukanto Bhattacharya, in in , Vol. 3, No. JJ05, 81-88, 2005................41 CALCULUS....................................53 5. A Triple Inequality with Series and Improper Integrals, by Florentin Smarandache, in Bulletin of Pure and Applied Sciences, Vol. 25E, No. 1, 215-217, 2006.........54 6. Immediate Calculation of Some Poisson Type Integrals Using SuperMathematics Circular Ex-Centric Functions, by Florentin Smarandache & Mircea Eugen................................