This primer is a useful tool both for individuals who are not “space aware”—unacquainted with space capabilities, organizations, and operations—and for those who are “space aware,” especially individuals associated with the space community, but not familiar with space capabilities, organizations, and operations outside their particular areas of expertise. It is your guide and your invitation to all the excitement and opportunity of space....

The attractiveness of Adam Lowther’s study of American nuclear weapons policy is that it explains the complexities of the issue in very clear terms. It will help all readers understand the debate. In particular, it frames the issue of nuclear weapons in relationship to the most basic concept of primary importance—how we view American strength in the world....

DISCLAIMER . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . v ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . .vii SUMMARY . . . . .ix CHALLENGING NUCLEAR ABOLITION . . . 1 Nuclear Modernization . . . .3 Nuclear Abolition . . . .9 NOTES . . . .31 APPENDIX . . . .37...

The space industrial sector has been of particular concern given its intimate connection with national security operations and plans, its broad importance for science and technology, and its competitive position toward foreign governments and producers. However, the industry has been struggling, and without US government actions it may not have the depth and vitality to provide affordable solutions to future national security requirements....

This study analyzes how the processes used in the national security planning influence the results. It begins by discussing the nature of strategic planning for national security, eventually defining it as a disciplined effort involving the allocation of resources to programmed activities aimed at achieving a set of objectives by integrating major goals, policies, and action sequences into a cohesive whole. The next step in this study defines several alternative methods for conducting strategic planning, including how using those methods could influence the outcome. The final section discusses the implications of the different approaches, including the recommendation that any review contemplating major changes in national security policy follow a more sequential and top-down process with clear guidance given to participants....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . 5 2 NATIONAL SECURITY PLANNING PROCESSES . . . . . 7 Notes . . . . 12 3 THE NEW LOOK OF 1952–53 . . . . . . 15 Notes . . . . 29 4 THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW OF 1996–97 . . . .33 Notes . . . . 51 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . 53 Notes . . . . 56...

The Department of Defense (DOD) anticipates the realization of biomimetic bird and two-inch, insect-sized systems within the 2015–47 period. Although robot systems of one millimeter or smaller are not explicitly specified in current DOD and Air Force technology road maps, the technological aims towards this size can be clearly inferred from official documents. This research assesses the likelihood of, and barriers to, the realization of true microrobots and nanorobots (defined as submillimeter-sized robots of micro-meter and nanometer proportions, respectively) that can perform in military applications by 2035. This research finds that the realization of true microrobots for military applications by 2035 is unlikely, except for a single case of microrobots....

Col Thompson, in his concentrated focus on China’s military space applications, examines PRC ground, space, counterspace, and space policy aspects. His principal findings: China has plans to construct a new launch site in the deep south; PRC telemetry, tracking and com-mand capacities are improving; China has the ability to conduct limited intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions from space; the PRC is pursuing a counterspace capability most likely using satellite jammers and anti-satellites (possibly parasitic or nano-satellites). Col Thompson concludes that while China’s space program does not now constitute a global threat, the PRC is pursuing space capabilities that will increase its regional influence, and deny an adversary certain uses of space....

In China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare Lt Col Kathryn L. Gauthier analyzes the potential for China to emerge as a peer competitor of the United States in the coming decades. First, she examines two traditional pillars of national strength— China’s status as a nuclear weapons state and as a space power. Second, she then explores China’s growing focus on information warfare (IW) as a means to wage asymmetric warfare against a technologically advanced adversary. Third, the author carefully examines the status of the three programs, highlights areas of concern and potential conflict with the United States, and analyzes the implications of these issues for the United States....

It is critical that the United States act now to put in place a program to produce a reliable replacement warhead. Colonel Vaughan addresses some critical points in the attached thesis on the Reliable Replacement Warhead and the recapitalization of the nuclear weapons complex....

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 An Aging Stockpile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Points of View . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Preview of Remaining Chapters . . . . . . . . . . 8 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 2 THE CASE FOR MAINTAINING THE STATUS QUO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The Stockpile is Safe and Reliable . . . . . . . 12 A Limited Role for Nuclear Weapons . . . . . .13 Nuclear Posture Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Responsive Infrastructure and Replacement Warheads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 3 THE CASE FOR BEGINNING RECAPITALIZATION NOW . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 Future Role for Nuclear Weapons . . . . . . . . 26 Nuclear Weapons Needed for the Foreseeable Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Stockpile Stewardship Program Concerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...

This thesis follows the history of joint targeting boards since World War II to illustrate the foundations that have led to today’s joint airpower targeting process. Having established the historical background, this thesis explores the current solutions for determining airpower mission and target priorities. Using the principles of war as a framework for analysis, this thesis compares the relative advantages and disadvantages of each model to determine whether a targeting board is an effective tool for the JFC in future operations. In the end, this thesis finds a Joint Targeting Coordination Board integrated into the air component staff as the greatest potential for providing a future joint commander with an effective process for determining airpower mission priorities and selecting targets. Finally, organizational changes and recommendations are suggested to assure the targeting process overcomes individual service biases and remains focused on accomplishing the theater objectives....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . 4 2 THE HISTORY OF JOINT TARGETING SINCE WORLD WAR II . . . . . 5 World War II . . . . . . 5 Korean Conflict . . . . 6 Vietnam War . . . . . . 9 Desert Storm . . . . . . 13 Notes . . . . . . 15 3 THE JTCB TODAY . . . 19 Current Definition . . . 19 Where the JTCB Fits into the Planning Process . . . . . . 20 Model A—The EUCOM/CFC Model . . . . . 21 Model B—The PACOM/LANTCOM Model . . . . . . 22 Summary . . . . 24 Notes . . . . . . 25 4 THE JTCB’S FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS . . . . . . 27 Assumptions . . . . . . 28 Methodology . . . . . . 29 Analysis . . . . 30 Assessment . . . 44 Notes . . . . . . 46 5 RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . 51 Recommendation Number One . . . . 51 Recommendation Number Two . . . . 53 Recommendation Number Three . . . 53 Notes . . . . . . 54...

This is a study of the applicability of prospect theory to military decision making.Prospect theory posits that the decision maker’s reference point determines thedomain in which he makes a decision. One implication of this study is that if the decision maker can do the same for asubordinate or for an enemy, he may be better able to predict their responses in agiven situation. The project’s goal is to develop a framework for assessing riskpropensity. It does this by first describing the military decision-making process andconcluding that it is a rational decision-making process. Second, this study describesprospect theory and matches the key aspects of the theory with the militarydecision-making process. Third, it proposes a framework for assessing riskpropensity. The theory is tested in a case study of Gen Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1944decision to launch Operation Market Garden. This decision is analyzed in terms ofGraham T. Allison’s three models for decision making and prospect theory todetermine which model or theory seems to provide the best explanations for Eisenhower’s decision....

INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 MILITARY DECISION MAKING AND PROSPECT THEORY. . . . 5 MARKET GARDEN: CALCULATED RISK OR FOOLISH GAMBLE? . . . . 19 APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK . . . . 39 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 47...

At its core this work is a database covering Anglo-American strategic bomber operations against Germany, Italy, and Axis associated or occupied Europe. As such it allows swift and easy listing of day-by-day bombing, bombing of strategic target systems by location and tonnage, bombing of specific countries, comparisons of US and British targeting and operations, and much more....

This paper examines the long development of precision guided bombs to show that the accuracy attained in Desert Storm was an evolution not a revolution in aerial warfare. This evolution continues and gives offensive airpower the advantage over the defense. Guided bomb development started during World War One with the “aerial torpedo”. When Desert Storm initiated in 1991 there were very few guided weapons that had not been extensively tested on training ranges and in combat. The precision demonstrated to the World during Desert Storm started evolving when airpower was first envisioned as a new dimension for conducting war, and was far from a revolution. Now, the continued development of imaging infrared, laser radar, synthetic aperture radar, and millimeter wave radar autonomous seekers further increases the flexibility, range, and effectiveness of guided bombs....

INTRODUCTION........1 EARLY GUIDED BOMBS THROUGH WORLD WAR TWO........3 World War One........3 Post World War One........4 World War Two........5 THE KOREAN WAR........19 THE VIETNAM WAR........22 Laser Guided Bombs (LGBs)........22 Electro-optical Guided Bombs........30 THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE 1970s........32 THE 1980s AND THE LIBYA RAID........35 DESERT STORM AND THE 1990s........38 Current Development Projects........41 EPILOGUE........48...

In this thesis, we propose a new manner of targeting economies—a holistic approach that accounts for the linkages between infrastructure elements and their resultant synergies. We first establish a theoretical foundation for targeting based on complexity science. This discipline examines the nature of complex, interconnected systems such as economies. Next, we demonstrate that economies are indeed highly interconnected systems. These linkages cannot be ignored in the targeting process. Finally, we tentatively propose a computer algorithm capable of targeting multiple, interacting infrastructure elements. The technique employs a genetic algorithm coupled to standard industrial analysis programs. When implemented, this computer technique should dramatically improve the effectiveness of economic targeting....

1 LOOKING BEYOND THE WEB . . . . . 1 Objectives and Scope . . . . . 2 A Convergence of Technologies . . . . 3 Thesis Organization . . . . . 4 Notes . . . . . 5 2 COMPLEXITY THEORY AND ECONOMIC TARGETING . . . . 7 Complex Systems Defined . . . . 7 Characteristics of Complex Systems . . . . . 10 Summary . . . . . 18 Notes . . . . . 19 3 SYNERGIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS . . . . 25 Targeting Issues . . . . . 25 Dissecting an Economy . . . . 27 Summary . . . . . 31 Notes . . . . . 32 4 MODELING AND SIMULATION TECHNIQUES . . . . 35 Targeting Philosophies . . . . 36 Numerical Techniques . . . . 39 Targeting Economic Sectors—A Proposed Numerical Simulation . . . . . 49 Philosophical Aspects of Computer-based Targeting . . . . 57 Summary . . . . . 58 Notes . . . . . 58 5 SYNERGY TABLES . . . . 65 Notes . . . . . 71 6 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 73 Recommendations . . . . 74 Final Remarks . . . . 74 Notes . . . . . 75...

A new ASAT policy seems appropriate as the US faces an entirely new, but uncertain, threat with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the rise of a multipolar world. Analyzing the ASAT debate from the past and the dynamics of the emerging space environment and threat can help in formulating that new ASAT policy—a continued ASAT research and development program, short of production and deployment, and arms control combined with collective security to diminish threat uncertainty. As the US reduces defense spending and force structure, such a policy would serve the national interests of the United States as the multipolar world develops....

1 SETTING THE STAGE . . . . . 1 ASAT’s Past Arguments—For and Against . . . . . 1 ASAT’s Arguments—Today and Tomorrow . . . . . 3 Notes . . . . . 4 2 CONSIDERING THE ROLE AND VALUE OF MILITARY SATELLITES . . . 5 Notes . . . . . 8 3 ASAT’S GENESIS: THE ARGUMENTS BEGIN . . . 9 Early Arguments for ASAT . . . . . 9 Eisenhower Administration Hedges Its Bets . . . . 10 Resisting ASAT . . . . 10 The Rise of the Satellite Interceptor . . . . . 12 Terminating the Satellite Interceptor . . . . 13 Hedging Bets . . . . . 13 Reconsidering ASAT’s Need . . . . . 14 Summarizing the Early Days . . . . 14 Notes . . . . . 15 4 THE SOPHISTICATION OF THE ASAT CONTROVERSY . . . . 17 Soviets Initiate an ASAT Program . . . . . . 17 Revitalizing the US ASAT—The Carter “Two-Track” Policy . . . . . 18 Soviet Initiatives—And the Reagan Response . . . 20 Soviet Satellites—How Threatening Are They . . . 21 Our Growing Dependence on Satellites . . . 22 Congress Prevails—Constraining the US ASAT . . . . . . 24 Summarizing the Carter and Reagan Years . . . . 24 Notes . . . . . 25 5 CHANGING STRATEGIES . . . 27 Notes . . . . . 29 6 ASAT...

I developed this thesis because I perceived a void in applying these themes—technology, force reductions, and futuristic visions—to command and control and to related impacts for staff structures. I seek concrete application of these ideas, rather than more rhetoric on what might be . . . someday. This paper represents my effort to peer into our future and see possibilities....

I submit there are two ways we can use limited numbers of prototype systems to ensure we learn relevant tactical lessons before we have to fight:(1) capitalizing on interactive computing technologies to better develop requirements and tactics throughout the system life cycle and (2) changing our concept of prototypes from the buying of one or two “experimental”items to procuring entire “prototypical” units....

1 SETTING THE STAGE . . . . 1 Background . . . . . 1 Methodology . . . . 2 Military Doctrine: Definitions and Types . . . . . 3 Notes . . . . 5 2 DEVELOPING ROBUST EMPLOYMENT DOCTRINE . . . . 7 Why Employment Doctrine Matters . . . . 7 How Employment Doctrine Develops . . . . . 8 Combat-Capable versus Combat-Lethal Doctrine . . . . . 11 Notes . . . . 13 3 DOCUMENTING DOCTRINAL LAG . . . . 15 The YB-17 and Refining Doctrine under Fire . . . . . 15 Modern Perspectives . . . . 18 Notes . . . . 21 4 CRITIQUING THE YOCKEY POLICY . . . . . 23 The Fallacy of Strategic Warning . . . . . 23 We Can’t Predict What We’ll Need . . . . . 25 Summarizing the Policy Critique . . . . . 27 Notes . . . . 27 5 POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS . . . . 29 Interactive Simulation for Employment Doctrine . . . . . 29 Prototypical Units . . . . . 32 Historical Perspective . . . . . 33 Notes . . . . 33 6 CONCLUSION . . . . 35 Notes . . . . 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . 39...

In Preventing Catastrophe: US Policy Options for Management of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia, Lt Col Martin J. “Marty” Wojtysiak, USAF, proposes a response to the dangerous proliferation of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. This paper highlights the threat in “The Nuclear Catastrophe of 2005,” a gripping projection of the worstcase scenario on the current realities of the Indian subcontinent. Written a year after the “catastrophe,” it vividly describes the events leading up to the disaster as well as the grim aftermath of a South Asian nuclear war. The remainder of the paper looks at US regional objectives and suggests how they might be achieved. The author proposes a regional proliferation regime that realistically addresses the threat and moves the United States to a pragmatic approach to manage and limit the ongoing proliferation in South Asia....

In this study Lt Col Michael J. Costigan, USAF, takes a critical look at the F-22 and its role in our military strategy in the twenty-first century. Its innovative technologies provide the F-22 with supercruise, stealth, and integrated avionics, and enable it to guarantee the air superiority so necessary to victory....

Missile defense has become a key factor in US strategic planning. The problem, of course, lies with the stage of current technological development. Mid-course or terminal-phase systems appear closer to feasibility just now, at least theoretically....

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 2 Déjà vu All Over Again . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3 Evaluation of Current National Missile-DEFENSE PROGRAMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4 Asia and the US Missile-defense Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51 5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70 ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73...

Lt Col Anthony Mastalir has done policy makers a welcome service by exploring the enigma wrapped in a conundrum which is Chinese space policy, focusing on the Chinese kinetic energy antisatellite (KE-ASAT) test of January 2007. That test ended a de facto moratorium on KE-ASAT tests which the United States and Russia had observed for over two decades. It also announced the arrival of a new player in strategic space, forcing a reevaluation of US capabilities in space as well as Chinese intentions there. Colonel Mastalir examines both that reevaluation and those intentions, relying on open-source material, particularly from Chinese strategic and military analysts....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 2 EXTREME DIMENSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 3 POLITICAL/DIPLOMATIC DIMENSION . . . . 25 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4 INFORMATION DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59 5 ECONOMIC DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 6 MILITARY DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86 7 FINDINGS/CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . .89 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103...

This study investigates Europe’s motives to develop the independent satellite navigation system known as Galileo despite the existence of America’s successful global positioning system (GPS). The study begins by analyzing both systems to familiarize the reader with global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and to provide an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of GPS and Galileo, as well as the systems’ similarities and differences. Although the two systems have different founding principles, they employ similar infrastructures and operational concepts. In the short term, Galileo will provide better accuracy for civilian users until GPS upgrades take effect. But performance is only part of the rationale. The author contends that Europe’s pursuit of Galileo is driven by a combination of reasons, including performance, independence, and economic incentive. With Galileo, Europe hopes to achieve political, security, and technological independence from the United States....

DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 GPS VERSUS GALILEO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 3 WHY GALILEO? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 4 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . .51 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Illustrations 1 Satellite geometry 9 2 Global positioning system (GPS) satellite 14 3 Galileo satellite 16 Table 1 Number of visible satellites for various masking angles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13...

The Multimission Framework for operational integration proposed by Colonel Dailey is a synthesis of the successful constructs across the many models currently being utilized throughout the Total Force. Current models in vogue are the Active Associate Wing, the reserve/Guard Associate Wing, the “Blended” Wing, and the Integrated Wing. Colonel Dailey examined each of these models for its positive and negative contributions to the Total Force. His research presented an ironic challenge: all of them work to varying degrees of success when coupled with good leaders and good people. Can history and research demonstrate a better way forward?...

This paper briefly traces the evolution of the military/media clash and identifies the Vietnam War as the turning point where mutual trust seemed to be permanently damaged. Government and military leadership pathologies combined with press distortions to leave the impression on the world stage that American wars could be won or lost in the news media. Right or wrong, the effects of a war perceived to be lost in the media, precipitated media safeguards to insure military campaigns in Grenada and Panama would not be lost on television news. While these safeguards and press controls became somewhat tempered by the time of the Gulf War, the Rubicon had been crossed. Military commanders could never again afford to ignore the way combat operations would be portrayed in the news media. This essential consideration for any would-be combat commander constitutes the new principle of war: media-spin....

This study examines one aspect of weather modification, benign weather modification (BWM), for possible use in assisting military operations. After briefly reviewing the history and science of weather modification, this thesis bounds the aspects of weather modification being addressed. It then describes barriers to BWM,showing how they affect current weather modification policy in the military. Examples are shown of current civilian BWM techniques, their possible use by the military, and some military-unique needs for weather modification....

INTRODUCTION . . . . . .1 AN OVERVIEW OF WEATHER MODIFICATION . . . . . . 7 BARRIERS TO WEATHER MODIFICATION. . . . . 13 MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION . .21 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. . . . . .29 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . .33...

In GPS and Galileo: Friendly Foes?, Lt Col Roftiel Constantine, United States Air Force (USAF), analyzes the heated competition to provide service from high in the skies of medium earth orbit. The European Union (EU) is developing Galileo, its own global positioning and navigation satellite system, scheduled to be operational by 2010. The EU states that Galileo will provide greater precision to all users than is currently available from the United States’ (US) global positioning system (GPS) through improved coverage of satellite signals at higher latitudes, and, unlike GPS, Galileo will be guaranteed to be always available—even during war or political disagreement. Regarding the enormous importance of GPS to the United States and millions of users worldwide, the prospect of a second, competing, and potentially interfering global satellite navigation system could have serious military, foreign policy, and industrial implications. The US government would benefit from the heightened awareness of the risks and opportunities Colonel Constantine presents for the United States surrounding the Galileo program....

1 INTRODUCTION TO THE GPS AND GALILEO PROGRAMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 2 HISTORY OF SATELLITE NAVIGATION . . . . . 3 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 GALILEO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 4 GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES . . . . . . . . .35 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 5 FIVE STEPS THE US GOVERNMENT SHOULD UNDERTAKE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 6 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55...

Information is one of the most, if not the most, essential elements of combat capability. Because telecommunications affects every aspect of a society, and is probably the most important medium which military information is exchanged, this thesis provides an understanding of the telecommunications system and how best to exploit it across the spectrum of conflict. I examine the system’s vulnerabilities to both lethal and nonlethal attack mechanisms. While the ability to employ nonlethal technologies are currently limited, I recommend pursuing a strong research and development program to acquire this capability. The reason is that they provide additional policy options to deal with conflict, they are cheap, and because research may not only discover unanticipated capabilities for the US, but also identify countermeasures to protect our own systems. This thesis concludes by offering guidelines to help determine whether to exploit telecommunications with either lethal or nonlethal attack strategies....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . 1 Notes . . . 3 2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS . . . . . 5 The Modern Communications System . . . . . 6 Vulnerability Analysis . . . . . . 17 Targeting . . . . 23 Quantification . . . . . 29 Conclusion . . . 32 Notes . . . 35 3 DISABLING WEAPONS . . . . . . 38 Definition . . . . . 39 History And Legal Considerations . . . . . 41 Conventional And Disabling Kill Mechanisms . . . 44 Advantages/Disadvantages . . . . . . 49 Conclusion . . . . 53 Notes . . . . 55 4 GUIDANCE FOR CAMPAIGN PLANNING . . . . . . 57 Planning Factors . . . . 57 Conclusion . . . . . 61 Notes . . . . . 62...

Lack of investment in future agile combat-support technologies could lead to a strategic surprise that diverts military attention and resources from critical air, space, and cyber operations. Looking to the national security environment in 2030, this research explores one technology—the microbial fuel cell (MFC)—that gives life to self-contained facilities decoupled from vulnerable supply lines and infrastructure networks. MFCs can dispose of waste (sewage, food scraps, gray water, etc.) while producing clean water (up to 70 percent of required volumes) and power (up to 600 watts per person). Using relevance tree methodology, the research concludes that USAF research and development investment alone will not bring MFCs to fruition. A successful strategy for MFCs will be collaborative, addressing not only the technological barriers but also the key social, industrial, and political hurdles to enabling this capability....

This study, Blue Horizons, was commissioned by the United States Air Force (USAF) chief of staff to provide “a new look at the future.” Specifically, the chief of staff asked the research team to provide “a common understanding of future strategic and technological trends for Air Force leaders to make better decisions.” The chief also sought to “confirm AU as [the Air Force’s] in-house think tank” and to improve the relevance of Air Force education to the decision making processes in Washington....

CHAPTER 1—Introduction . . . .1 Methodology . . . .1 Overview . . . . . .2 CHAPTER 2—alternate futures . . . . 3 Peer China . . . . .3 A Path toward a Peer China . . . .3 Peer China 2030—Causality and Impact . . . .6 Capabilities Needed to Respond to a Peer China Crisis . . . . .7 Resurgent Russia . . . . .8 The Development of a Resurgent Russia . . . .9 Capabilities to Defend against a Resurgent Russian State . . . . .10 Failed State—Nigeria . . . .11 A Failure We Cannot Ignore . . . .11 Nigeria Shatters . . . . .13 Capabilities Required for Intervention . . . .14 Jihadist Insurgency . . . . .15 Roots of the Schism . . . .16 The Insurgency . . . . 17 Capabilities Needed to Combat the Insurgency . . . 19 Operations Analysis Results . . . .20 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . .22 Recommendations . . . .26 The Way Ahead . . . . 28 Notes . . . . 29 TITLES IN THE OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES . 37...

Although cruise missiles are among the newest and most sophisticated weapons fielded by the United States, they possess a rich conceptual and technological heritage . It is important that we understand this heritage as we consider deployment and employment options . It is also important that we understand the developmental process illustrated by the history of the cruise missile. Without the perspective provided by this history, our perceptions of their purpose and use lack depth and insight....

Technical innovation lies at the heart of the case for privileging airpower in the American way of war, but such innovation comprises only one of warfare’s seven vital contexts. The sheer complexity of war and warfare renders prediction, technological and other, a high-risk activity. The contexts of war and warfare are (1) political, (2) societal-cultural, (3)economic, (4) technological, (5) military-strategic, (6) geographical, and (7) historical....

DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii THE AIRPOWER ADVANTAGE IN FUTURE WARFARE: THE NEED FOR STRATEGY . . . . . . .1 Plan of Attack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Why this Study? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Airpower Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Issues and Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Future Warfare: Contextual Realities . . . . . 20 US Airpower Advantage in Future Warfare . . 30 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35...