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This study concludes that in order for peacekeepers to achieve their mandate, it is critical to possess strong political will and a minimum of operational support.Furthermore, regional organizations run the gamut in both political will and operational capability. Their performance indicates that when their national interests are at stake, the regionals demonstrate the required political will to persevere in a mission....

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INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 THE NATURE OF PEACEKEEPING . . . . . 5 REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEACEKEEPING . . . . . 13 PERFORMANCE AND POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS. . . . . 19 THE US ROLE IN SUPPORT OF PEACEKEEPING. . . . .33 RECOMMENDATIONS. . . . . 39 CONCLUSION . . . . . 47 BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . 51...

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In China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare Lt Col Kathryn L. Gauthier analyzes the potential for China to emerge as a peer competitor of the United States in the coming decades. First, she examines two traditional pillars of national strength— China’s status as a nuclear weapons state and as a space power. Second, she then explores China’s growing focus on information warfare (IW) as a means to wage asymmetric warfare against a technologically advanced adversary. Third, the author carefully examines the status of the three programs, highlights areas of concern and potential conflict with the United States, and analyzes the implications of these issues for the United States....

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Each year the USAF prosecutes approximately 35 retirement-eligible members; 15 of them eventually receive a punitive discharge at trial. While the overall numbers are not significant, the people behind those numbers are. During my tenure as a trial and defense counsel, I have prosecuted or defended four of those individuals. The military justice system owes it to its members to ensure that justice is done in all cases. Each military member facing a court-martial deserves to be punished for the offenses committed. Sometimes, a punitive discharge with loss of retirement pay is the entirely appropriate result at trial. Sometimes it is not. This paper is the result of my belief that the determination of whether members ought to forfeit their retirement pay should be left to the wise discretion of the sentencing authority and the convening authority, not to vague notions of collateral consequences....

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The Slovak National Uprising of 1944 is ignored and/or treated as a nonevent in the Western historiography of World War II. The political climate during World War II and the Cold War that followed obscured and distorted the history and understanding of this revolt. The raising of the Iron Curtain in the 1990s removed the veil of secrecy from much of Eastern Europe’s wartime history, and Western historians are exploring the new resources available, but coverage of Slovakia’s story and uprising remains very limited. This work aims to fill some of the void....

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In this study, we discuss five issues for change, and our recommendations provide the framework needed to produce the project’s desired end state of a measurable and sustainable expeditionary process that meets combatant commanders’ requirements across the range of military operations. The Air Force continues to support CCDR requirements around the globe. However, the stresses in today’s operating environment have revealed weaknesses in the way the Air Force presents forces and capabilities in support of CCDR needs. The challenge is to change current processes so that every deployment is not a custom-made wooden shoe....

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Executive Summary ix Introduction 1 Organize-Train-Equip 7 Force Presentation Model 15 Force Generation and Presentation 21 Training, Education, and Strategic Communication 25 Conclusion 31 Notes 32 List of Acronyms 33...

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This study examines the history of technology and sovereignty, which reveals a model for the evolution of international law. Specifically, the history of sea, air, and space provides examples on past issues of sovereignty. A three-stage pat-tern of international law emerges. Under the assumption that sovereignty issues related to information warfare will follow the same path, the current state of sovereignty regarding information is established. To focus the study, a functional outline for international convention, the International Regime for Information Security (IRIS), is advanced. IRIS balances US domestic privacy needs with US national security demands. Specifically, technology issues regarding digital identification and encryption are weighed against civil liberties and intelligence needs....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . 7 2 INTERNATIONAL LAW . . . . 9 Notes . . . . . . . 16 3 INFORMATION RELIANCE . . . . . 19 Notes . . . . . . . 28 4 STATUS QUO—CYBERLITIGATION . . . . . 31 Notes . . . . . . . 36 5 THE INTERNATIONAL REGIME FOR INFORMATION SECURITY MODEL. . . .39 Notes . . . . . . . 47 6 THE FUTURE . . . . . . 49 Notes . . . . . . . 56...

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Lt Col Thomas D. Torkelson claims that the inability of the United States to achieve its stated political objectives in its global war on terror (GWOT) reflects its flawed kinetic-centric military strategy. This study erects a framework of effectiveness utilizing Clausewitzian principles to judge military strategy. By considering the expressed political objectives of the GWOT, the centers of gravity (COG) that military strategy should target within this struggle, and the GWOT’s placement along a Clausewitzian continuum of violence, this paper evaluates US military efforts in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) through the perspective of two opposing models....

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1 THE TIMELINESS OF TIMELESSNESS . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2 CLAUSEWITZIAN EFFECTIVENESS . . . . . . .9 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 3 THE KINETIC MODEL AND ITS PREVALENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 4 THE NONKINETIC MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 5 OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM: THE MODELS APPLIED . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 6 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113...

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Essays Introduction: The Protraction and Prolongation of Wars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Karl P. Magyar Iran-Iraq: Protracted Conflict, Prolonged War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M. A. Shahriar Shirkhani and Constantine P. Danopoulos The Longevity of the Lebanese Civil War . . .41 As’ad AbuKhalil The Arab-Israeli Wars: A Conflict of Strategic Attrition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67 Stewart Reiser Prolonged Conflict in the Sudan . . . . . . . . .99 Ann Mosely Lesch Fire in the Horn: Prolonged War in Ethiopia and Eritrea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Cobie Harris Chad: The Apparent Permanence of Ethno-Regional Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Frédérick Belle Torimiro Liberia’s Conflict: Prolongation through Regional Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177 Karl P. Magyar The Rhodesian Conflict: 1966–79 . . . . . . .195 Herbert M. Howe Civil War in a Fragile State—Mozambique . 225 Christopher Gregory The War Over Angola and Namibia: Factors of Prolongation . . . . . ...

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It is understandable that developments in Europe are carefully monitored in the United States. US concern that its relationship to a unified Europe will be different from the relationship with Europe as it exists now is also quite obvious. There must be a new balance. This paper offers a perfect view of how the new US-EU relationship will develop. It will take time before a unified Europe will be a powerful ally, especially from a military point of view, but we will get there. Meanwhile, we will continue to make critical comments regarding US foreign policy decisions....

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1 NOSTALGIA, NATO, AND THE NEW EUROPE . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 2 THE VERY MODEL OF A MODERN MAJOR NATION-STATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 ANARCHY, POWER, AND INTEREST: UNDERSTANDING ALLIANCES . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4 GOOD-BYE TO ALL THAT: THE END OF NOSTALGIA IN THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63...

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Col William Palmby’s award-winning study, Outsourcing the Air Force Mission: A Strategy for Success, explores how the Air Force must adjust to this new reality of a world where the state no longer possesses a monopoly on war. He reviews the history and driving forces that have led to increased outsourcing by the Air Force, finding that while it may be the most dominant such force in history, the range of roles turned over to the private market means that private companies and their employees now have a significant influence on the very success or failure of its critical operations....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 2 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 WHERE WE ARE TODAY . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4 A STRATEGY FOR SUCCESS . . . . . . . . . . .47 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59...

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Maj Richard J. Hazdra’s Air Mobility: The Key to the United States National Security is an examination of the force structure of Air Mobility Command (AMC) based on a model for two major theater wars. His study examines this organization’s current force structure. Air mobility is the key that unlocks the national security strategy (NSS). AMC’s force structure is crucial for the United States to implement its NSS. His study centers on the question: Can a force structure based on the possibility of fighting two major theater wars satisfy the requirements for steady-state operations? Major Hazdra examines three corollary issues: air mobility as a form of airpower that enables the military instrument of power in two basic ways, requirements placed on mobility air forces, and the structure of mobility air forces and the effectiveness of that structure....

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"The publication of this book puts to rest 35 years of false history. It also decisively concludes the erroneous dishonor suffered by Gen John Daniel Lavelle, the Seventh Air Force commander. General Lavelle, Colonel O’Malley, and personnel of the Seventh Air Force acted pursuant to presidential orders secretly issued on 3 February 1972 in the Oval Office. It is clear that they loyally and bravely served, protected, and defended the Constitution of the United States."...

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1 The Fatal Crash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 The Hard Coal Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 Saint Rose School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4 Saint Rose Basketball . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 5 West Point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 6 Diane Muennink, Silver Wings, and the Air Force Academy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 7 The B-47 Bomber and the General’s Aide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63 8 The Blackbird SR-71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 9 Colonel O’Malley and Combat in Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119 10 Combat Operations in North Vietnam . . 129 11 SAC Wing Commander . . . . . . . . . . . .163 12 Brigadier General: First General Officer Assignments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .175 13 Joint Chiefs of Staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185 14 Air Staff Plans and Operations . . . . . . .201 15 Vice-Chief of the US Air Force . . . . . . . 219 16 Pacific Air Force Commander . . . . . . . . 233 17 Tactical Air Force Commander and the Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .243 APPENDIX: War Messages ...

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DISCLAIMER...............................................ii FOREWORD...............................................vi ABOUT THE AUTHOR..................................viii ACKNOWLEDGMENT.....................................ix INTRODUCTION..........................................x Chapter 1 GERMINATION OF OUTER SPACE AS A LEGAL CONCEPT.......................................1 Chapter 2 AIR FORCE OPPOSITION TO INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS ON SPACE.....17 Chapter 3 AIR FORCE AS A BACKSEAT “DRIVER” IN SPACE LAW DEBATES................41 Chapter 4 PROJECT WEST FORD..................58 Chapter 5 MAJ GEN ALBERT M. KUHFELD AND AIR FORCE LEADERSHIP OF SPACE LAW DEVELOPMENT...........................................64 Chapter 6 THE 1972 LIABILITY FOR DAMAGES CONVENTION............................................75 EPILOGUE.................................................86 Appendix A AIR STAFF REACTION TO PROJECT RAND REPORT DATED 28 OCTOBER 1957......90 Appendix B CONCLUSIONS OF THE AIR DOCTRINE BRANCH STUDY 8 OCTOBER 1958.......................................................92 Appendix C EXCERPTS FROM THE OPERATIONS COORDINATIN...

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This study analyzes the need for changes to NATO airpower doctrine to reflect current Post–Cold War realities. NATO air doctrine does not yet reflect the actuality of today’s operations, nor does it anticipate the probable future employment of NATO’s airpower. Out–of–area operations and PFP participation in NATO operations will have profound effects on combined doctrine, training, organizational structures, exercises and employment of forces. NATO’s tactical doctrine revision process served the alliance well during the Cold War. But today, the international environment has drastically changed: both the nature of the threat and the use of NATO airpower during conflict have changed. The current doctrinal revision process has proven too slow and cumbersome to provide adequate direction for air strategists during ongoing operations. There are many new doctrinal areas that must be thoroughly addressed so that NATO can chart a course for the future that in the end provides the best, most effective mix of forces....

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INTRODUCTION...1 The Goal: Stability And The Spread Of Democracy....2 Airpower Doctrine And Why It Should Be Kept Current.....5 Preview And Methodology..6 ISSUE BACKGROUND.....8 The NATO Air Doctrine Process ....8 Out–Of–Area Operations .. 11 The PFP And NATO Enlargement .... 13 OUT OF AREA IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO’S AIR DOCTRINE..... 25 Potential Areas For Doctrinal Revision.. 28 Conclusion....44 ENLARGEMENT AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO’S AIRPOWER... 49 Immediate Considerations For PFP Integration.. 50 The Cold War Military Legacy.. 51 Training And Equipment ... 53 The Cold War Deployment Of Assets.... 54 Suggested Solutions.. 55 Long Term Implications For PFP Integration .... 57 Conclusion.... 64 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS... 67 BIBLIOGRAPHY..... 70...

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The reader should know that the scenario presented in this monograph is not a forecast of a specific future but rather is structured to help the reader understand the magnitude and shape of Africa’s largest economy and the impact it has on the world. As we see in the 2009 global recession and credit crisis in today’s globalized world, a failure in Nigeria, like the failure of almost any other nation, could have serious repercussions across the planet. Whether Nigeria is able to grow into a thriving, stable, and vibrant democracy or whether it becomes a failed state, the people of the United States must be ready to support Nigeria as a fellow member of the international system....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 2 NIGERIA IN CONTEXT: DEFINING FAILURE . . . . 9 3 THE SOCIAL SCHISMS OF NIGERIA . . . . 21 Col Douglas W. Jaquis 4 NIGERIAN POLITICS . . . . 33 Col Mark D. DeLong 5 NIGERIA’S ECONOMY . . . 39 Col Daniel B. Gordon 6 MILITARY VECTORS . . . . 55 Col Robert S. McAllum 7 NIGERIA IN 2030: PATHS TO FAILURE . . . .65 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 8 TECHNOLOGY AND FAILED STATE 2030—THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCERESPONDS . . . . .95 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 9 SUMMARY . . . . . 109...

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In The Politics of Coercion: Toward a Theory of Coercive Airpower for Post–Cold War Conflict, Lt Col Ellwood P. “Skip” Hinman IV confronts an issue of high interest to airmen and policy makers alike: What does coercion theory suggest about the use of airpower in the early twenty-first century? More specifically, Colonel Hinman seeks to determine whether any of the existing theories of coercion can stand alone as a coherent, substantive, and codified approach to airpower employment. Framing his analysis on three key attributes of conflict in the post–Cold War era—limited, nonprotracted war; political re-straint; and the importance of a better state of peace—Hinman examines the contemporary applicability of the four major theories of coercive airpower: punishment, risk, decapitation, and denial....

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INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 What Is a Theory of Coercive Airpower? . . . . 2 The Attributes of Post–Cold War Conflict . . .4 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 COERCION THEORY AND THE POST–COLD WAR ERA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Punishment-Based Coercion: A Theory for Total War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Risk-Based Coercion: A Theory for Limited War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Decapitation-Based Coercion: Echoes of the Past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Denial-Based Coercion: Too Much of a Good Thing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 A NEW THEORY FOR A NEW ERA . . . . . . . .31 Phase One . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Phase Two . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 Phase Three . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Limited, Nonprotracted War and the Coercion Hybrid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 The Coercion Hybrid and the Politically Restrained Natur...

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It is my hope that these three essays provide the reader with a better and more comprehensive understanding of the International Criminal Court, its development, and the reasons all Americans should be concerned. For the non-American reader, I hope that these essays provide a well-articulated explanation of our concerns about the International Criminal Court....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii DEDICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS . . . . . . . . . . . .vii PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix Essays A HISTORY OF WAR CRIMES AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Maj David A. Hater Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT: A CASE OF THE UNITED STATES HAVING ITS CAKE AND EATING IT TOO? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Maj Steven D. Dubriske Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 GENERAL WATSON TO THE ICC? THE PRESIDENT MUST DECIDE SOON! . . . . . . . . 71 Dr. Donald A. MacCuish and Lt Col Tomislav Ruby Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 APPENDIX: SIGNATORIES AND RATIFICATIONS TO THE ROME STATUTE OF THE ICC . . . . . . .9...

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Accounts of seizing the tactical or operational initiative abound. At the strategic level of war, however, initiative receives only transitory mention. Authors and military professionals often assume a common understanding of strategic initiative, including which combatant has it and why. There is neither a clear definition of the concept, nor any significant analysis of the elements that contribute to it. This thesis contributes to the elimination of that gap by answering the question—what factors lead to significant shifts in strategic initiative during the conduct of modern, conventional war?...

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 2 THE RUSSO–GERMAN WAR, 1941–45 . . . . 11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48 3 THE PACIFIC WAR, 1941–45 . . . . . . . . . .55 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113...

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1 NECESSARY PRECONDITIONS . . . . . . . . . . 1 Ambling toward Sputnik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 NASA’s Predecessor Organization and the DOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2 EISENHOWER ACT I: REACTION TO SPUTNIK AND THE BIRTH OF NASA . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 Eisenhower Attempts to Calm the Nation . . .32 President’s Scientific Advisory Committee and Civil Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Johnson and the Preparedness Investigating Subcommittee . . . . . . . . . . . 46 The NACA Enters the Fray . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 The PSAC and “Introduction to Outer Space” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 Balancing Civilian and Military Responsibilities in Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79 3 EISENHOWER ACT II: FORGING A NASA-DOD RELATIONSHIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 To Compete with the Soviet Union . . . . . . . 93 Space for Peace? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Air Force Phi...

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The B-52 and Jet Propulsion: A Case Study in Organizational Innovation is a coherent and nonpolemical discussion of the revolution in military affairs, a hot topic in the national security arena. Mark Mandeles examines an interesting topic, how can the military better understand, manage, and evaluate technological development programs. We see Murphy’s Law (anything that can go wrong, will go wrong) in operation. No matter how carefully the military designs, plans, and programs the process of technological development, inevitably, equipment, organizations, and people will challenge the desired expectations. The book focuses on the introduction of jet propulsion into the B-52. This case study illustrates the reality that surprises and failures are endemic to development programs where information and knowledge are indeterminate, ambiguous, and imperfect....

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Chapter 1 Introduction ................................1 Chapter 2 Innovation and Military Revolutions ..............................................................4 Chapter 3 Logic and Procedure of Analysis ..............................................................17 Chapter 4 Prelude: Jet Propulsion and the Air Force.....................................................29 Chapter 5 The Introduction of Jet Propulsion into the B-52..........................................54 Chapter 6 Conclusion................................99 Table 1 USAF Engine Development Time.....42 Table 2 B-52 TimeLine...............................56 Table 3 Maximum Takeoff Weights and Combat Radii.......................................66 Table 4 XB-52 Performance Requirements..........................................75 Table 5 Boeing Company Comparison of Basic Turbopropand Basic Turbojet Models ...............................87 Appendix XB-52 Program Select Senior Personnel...............................................115...

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Information is one of the most, if not the most, essential elements of combat capability. Because telecommunications affects every aspect of a society, and is probably the most important medium which military information is exchanged, this thesis provides an understanding of the telecommunications system and how best to exploit it across the spectrum of conflict. I examine the system’s vulnerabilities to both lethal and nonlethal attack mechanisms. While the ability to employ nonlethal technologies are currently limited, I recommend pursuing a strong research and development program to acquire this capability. The reason is that they provide additional policy options to deal with conflict, they are cheap, and because research may not only discover unanticipated capabilities for the US, but also identify countermeasures to protect our own systems. This thesis concludes by offering guidelines to help determine whether to exploit telecommunications with either lethal or nonlethal attack strategies....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . 1 Notes . . . 3 2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS . . . . . 5 The Modern Communications System . . . . . 6 Vulnerability Analysis . . . . . . 17 Targeting . . . . 23 Quantification . . . . . 29 Conclusion . . . 32 Notes . . . 35 3 DISABLING WEAPONS . . . . . . 38 Definition . . . . . 39 History And Legal Considerations . . . . . 41 Conventional And Disabling Kill Mechanisms . . . 44 Advantages/Disadvantages . . . . . . 49 Conclusion . . . . 53 Notes . . . . 55 4 GUIDANCE FOR CAMPAIGN PLANNING . . . . . . 57 Planning Factors . . . . 57 Conclusion . . . . . 61 Notes . . . . . 62...

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This work examines the historical development of aerial precision since World War I and the emergence of the just-war tradition and international law since 1625. It then identifies specific dilemmas associated with the two sorts of judgments required by the just-war tradition, namely, jus ad bellum (justice of war) and jus in bello (justice in war), and explores their ramifications. The aim of this study is to encourage moral and ethical reflection by politicians, strategists, and tacticians at all levels. The issues at hand are aerial precision doctrine, the use of the precision-guided munition as the modern aerial weapon of choice, and the influence of the just-war tradition on strategic and tactical decisions....

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1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Aerial-Precision Development: Past, Present, and Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 3 Airpower and the Just-War Tradition . . . . .33 4 The Dilemmas of Perfect Aerial Precision . 49 5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63...

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A complex and interdependent environment in the global war on terrorism (GWOT) highlights the challenge of translating the theory of effects-based operations (EBO) into practice, particularly with respect to influencing the will of the people and achieving a desired end state. The following paper seeks to illustrate the conditions and challenges surrounding the translation of current effects-based theory into operational practice in the GWOT by using three conceptual constructs. First, the Microsoft Corporation, its connectivity to the Internet, and the persistent attacks by computer hackers on Microsoft products help frame the adversary and the complex environment and conditions surrounding the GWOT. Second, the Al-Jazeera satellite news network serves as an anecdotal backdrop for the challenges military planners face in managing EBO assessment and controlling the “effects” in EBO. Third, the versatility of both the MQ- 1B Predator unmanned aerial vehicle and Special Operations Forces illustrates the importance of developing and maintaining collective knowledge, technological relevance, and doctrinal adaptability in an ever-changin...

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Colonel Hesterman's analysis of this subject is accurate and timely. She provides a fresh look at the criminal/terrorist nexus and by examining corporate trends, provides unique insights into funding aspects of both activities. This important subject matter is ripe for further policy and substantive analytical focus. Analysts and policy makers alike can certainly use her study’s conclusions and recommendations in their efforts to protect our nation against this vexing threat....

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1 “A POISONOUS BREW” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 TRANSNATIONAL CRIME . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 3 THE CRIMINAL-TERRORIST NEXUS: FUNDING TERROR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4 TERRORIST GROUPS: CORPORATE TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 5 CONCLUSION: THE BATTLE AT THE CROSSROADS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59...

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To help understand and begin to develop alternative policy frameworks that fit the current and emerging security context, the US Air Force’s Air Force Research Institute (AFRI), the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and King’s College, London, hosted a two-day conference at the RUSI offices in London on 18 and 19 May 2009. We sought to bring together some of the best thinkers on deterrence to examine how to reinvigorate this essential tool for today’s policy community. The conference exceeded our expectations, as readers will observe from the excellent products in these proceedings. From the pre-conference “thought pieces” by RUSI’s Michael Codner and AFRI’s Adam Lowther—the presentations by the keynote speakers and case study developers—to the post-conference “Quick Looks” by AFRI personnel, the outcome reflects the creativity and the seriousness with which the attendees and the planning staffs approached the topic....

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1 Framing Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century: Conference Summary . . . . . . . 1 Adam Lowther 2 Defining “Deterrence” . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Michael Codner 3 Understanding Deterrence . . . . . . . .27 Adam Lowther 4 Policy and Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Gen Norton A Schwartz, USAF Lt Col Timothy R. Kirk, USAF 5 Waging Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Gen Kevin Chilton, USAF Greg Weaver 6 On Nuclear Deterrence and Assurance . . 77 Keith B. Payne 7 Conference Agenda . . . . . . . . . . 121 8 Contemporary Challenges for Extended Deterrence . . . . . . . . . . . . .  123 Tom Scheber 9 Case Study—The August 2008 War between Russia and Georgia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Denis Corboy 10 Deterrence and Counterproliferation . . 149 Malcolm Chalmers 11 Deterrence and Saddam Hussein . . . 155 Barry Schneider 12 Stymieing Leviathan . . . . . . . . . 215 Paul Schulte 13 The Madrid Train Bombing . . . . . . .237 Peter Neumann 14 Framing Strategic Deterrence . . . . . . ...

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The United States Air Force has long favored attacking electrical power systems.Electric power has been considered a critical target in every war since World War II,and will likely be nominated in the future. Historically, there have been four basic strategies behind attacks on national electrical systems: to cause a decline in civilian morale; to inflict costs on the political leaders to induce a change; to hamper military operations; and to hinder war production. The evidence shows that the only sound reason for attacking electrical power is to effect the production of war material in a war of attrition against a self-supporting nation-state without outside assistance. The implication for future strategic air operations is important. Because attacks on electric power cause indirect collateral damage which can be politically counterproductive,and the military benefit is minimal, the United States should reject attacks on national electrical power systems in the near future....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . 3 2 NATIONAL ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEMS . . . . 5 Generation . . . . . . 5 Transmission . . . . . 7 Distribution . . . . . . 8 Control . . . . 8 Effects . . . . . 10 Notes . . . . . 12 3 ELECTRICAL POWER TARGETING IN THE PAST— ATTACKS IN TOTAL WAR . . . . . . 15 World War II—Germany . . . 17 World War II—Japan . . . . . 22 United States Strategic Bombing Survey . . . . . . 25 Notes . . . . . 28 4 ELECTRICAL POWER TARGETING IN THE PAST— ATTACKS IN LIMITED WAR . . . . . 33 Korean War . . . . . . 33 Vietnam War . . . . . 37 Desert Storm . . . . . 41 Notes . . . . . 42 5 TARGETING ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEMS . . . 45 Failures . . . . 45 When to Target Electric Power . . . 48 Conclusions and Implications . . . . 53 Notes . . . . . 54 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 57...

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This study, Blue Horizons, was commissioned by the United States Air Force (USAF) chief of staff to provide “a new look at the future.” Specifically, the chief of staff asked the research team to provide “a common understanding of future strategic and technological trends for Air Force leaders to make better decisions.” The chief also sought to “confirm AU as [the Air Force’s] in-house think tank” and to improve the relevance of Air Force education to the decision making processes in Washington....

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CHAPTER 1—Introduction . . . .1 Methodology . . . .1 Overview . . . . . .2 CHAPTER 2—alternate futures . . . . 3 Peer China . . . . .3 A Path toward a Peer China . . . .3 Peer China 2030—Causality and Impact . . . .6 Capabilities Needed to Respond to a Peer China Crisis . . . . .7 Resurgent Russia . . . . .8 The Development of a Resurgent Russia . . . .9 Capabilities to Defend against a Resurgent Russian State . . . . .10 Failed State—Nigeria . . . .11 A Failure We Cannot Ignore . . . .11 Nigeria Shatters . . . . .13 Capabilities Required for Intervention . . . .14 Jihadist Insurgency . . . . .15 Roots of the Schism . . . .16 The Insurgency . . . . 17 Capabilities Needed to Combat the Insurgency . . . 19 Operations Analysis Results . . . .20 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . .22 Recommendations . . . .26 The Way Ahead . . . . 28 Notes . . . . 29 TITLES IN THE OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES . 37...

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In the aftermath of 9/11, President George W. Bush declared the dawn of a new kind of war. He has repeatedly emphasized that means and measures of success in this new war will differ greatly from wars past. However, if this “war on terrorism” is unlike any other war, then what is it like? From the public statements of high-ranking US officials, metaphorical answers emerge: terrorism is a metastasizing cancer, a plague, a threat from which we are not immune. This study explores the analogies of immunity, infection, and cancer. In doing so it addresses the classic strategic question: What is the nature of the enemy and of the fight?...

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1 EMERGING METAPHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 THREATS FROM WITHOUT . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3 THREATS FROM WITHIN . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 4 REDEFINING WAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33...

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This paper asserts that the current operational requirements and system concept generation processes can and should be significantly improved. To develop that assertion, the paper examines the evolution of the processes since the President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Defense Management (the "Packard Commission") made its recommendations in 1986. Examining this evolution reveals fundamental problems that have been alleviated to some extent by recent reforms but remain to such a degree that further improvement is warranted. Therefore, this paper makes six major recommendations for improving the operational requirements and system concepts generation processes....

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1. IMPORTANT PROCESSES FOR TOUGH QUESTIONS 1 2. IMPROVING DEFENSE PLANNING 11 Section 1: The case for Strategies-to-Tasks for Objectives - Budget Links Section 2: The Case for Strategies-to-Tasks for Long-Range Planning 3 .IMPROVING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING 28 Section 1: The Case for vesting the JROC with Milestone 0 Authority Section 2: The Case for a Pure Mission Need Statement, No Early Acquisition Category, and the JROC for All Mission Need Statements Section 3: The Case for Operational Planners Leading Phase 0 4. CONCLUSION 54...

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The initial question of this study concerns the debate between those who believe in a general Islamic threat, as defined most eloquently by Samuel P. Huntington in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, and others who see a small band of religious fanatics who have hijacked Islam from the moderate majority. This question about the source of terrorism has importance to the major Islamic nations as it does for Latin American countries, where Muslims are a largely undistinguishable minority....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 UNDERSTANDING “ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Perspectives of Islam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Islamic Anti-Western Rage: Historic and Strategic Explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Islamic Angst: Psychological and Religious Struggles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Clash or Collusion of Islamic Fundamentalists? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3 ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN . . . . . . . . . . 19 Muslim Demographics in the Region . . . . . .20 Islamic Terrorist Attacks in the Region . . . . 21 Islamic Terrorist Support in the Region . . . . 23 Muslims’ Geographic Connection with Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....

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None before Prof. John Norton Moore has argued the value of democratic principles in deterrence and conflict avoidance. In this important book, Dr. Gary Sharp analyzes the concepts in Moore’s seminal work The War Puzzle (2005), which describes Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance. Sharp carefully dissects Moore’s deterrence model and examines those incentives that discourage nondemocratic governments from pursuing violent conflicts. Arguing that existing democracies must make an active effort to foster the political environment in which new democracies can develop, Sharp discusses the elements critical to promoting democratization and thus strengthening system wide deterrence at the state and international levels....

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1 LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND ITS GLOBAL INFLUENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Features of a Liberal Democracy . . . . . . . . .2 Global Political Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 2 CONVENTIONAL THEORIES OF WAR AND WAR AVOIDANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Conventional Thinking on the Cause of War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Conventional Approaches to War Avoidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Deterrence as a Tool of War Avoidance . . . .31 The Law of Conflict Management . . . . . . .35 The Future of Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . 38 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3 THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE PRINCIPLE . . . .45 The Early Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Contemporary Studies and Methodologies . 49 Explanations for the Democratic Peace Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Challenges and Alternate Rationales . . . . . 72 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 ...

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Recent airpower operations revealed a deficiency in the United States Air Force’s (USAF) ability to precisely attack mobile targets at standoff ranges with minimal collateral damage. Future airpower operations will be executed in politically sensitive strategic environments and thus will require the ability to precisely destroy mobile targets that may have been strategically placed by an adversary in areas with a high risk of collateral damage. Current air-to-ground guided weapon systems, including man-in-the-loop guidance weapon systems, have limited “collateral reduction” capabilities; and future autonomous precision standoff weapon systems may increase the risk and uncertainty associated with collateral damage due to technology limitations. The acquisition of a precision standoff man-in-the-loop weapon system through the modification of current weapon systems or the acquisition of a new weapon system may provide the USAF a critically needed air-to-ground capability against mobile targets in a high-risk collateral damage environment....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 2 THE NEED FOR PRECISION ENGAGEMENT AGAINST MOBILE TARGETS . . . . 5 3 USAF TARGET IDENTIFICATION AND GUIDED WEAPON SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES . . . . . 23 4 FUTURE WEAPON SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES . . . . . 35 5 LEGAL ISSUES, ACCOUNTABILITY, FLEXIBILITY, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SHORTFALLS, AND ACQUISITION RISK MANAGEMENT . . . . 53 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . 65 GLOSSARY . . . . . 69...

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Air Force colonel Chad Manske traces the roots of the NSC to its organizational prototype—the British Committee of Imperial Defence. By comparing these institutions, their functions, purposes, leadership, and assessing how each changed over time, we gain an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of these different approaches to policy development. Colonel Manske successfully draws on comparative historical experience to make sound recommendations for strengthening and enhancing the effectiveness of the National Security Council as a deliberative policy coordinating body within the Executive Office of the President....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2 The British Committee of Imperial Defence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 3 The US National Security Council . . . . . 35 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 4 The Committee of Imperial Defence and the National Security Council: Comparison and Contrast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 5 Analysis, Conclusions, Recommendations, and Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90...

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The analysts were charged with the task of anticipating which specific contentious issues likely will propel large, organized political units to choose violent means of acquiring their sociopolitical objectives rather than attaining them peacefully. The units on which we focus have been traditionally identified as states, but we recognize that a host of new sub- and suprastate actors also will play major roles in such wars; hence, we also will allude to them....

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DISCLAIMER...............................................ii PREFACE....................................................vi HISTORY, CULTURE, AND CHANGE: FOUNDATIONS OF CONFLICTS AND WARS......1 RELIGION-A BANNER FOR TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY CONFLICT............................19 NATIONAL FRAGMENTATION, ETHNICITY, AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER............................32 POPULATION PRESSURES, MIGRATION, AND REFUGEES...................................46 TRANSNATIONAL CRIME ITS EFFECT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL STABILITY..............................................58 HUMAN RIGHTS AND HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS............................................70 ANTICIPATING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ECONOMIC SOURCES OF CONFLICTS..........82 THE THIRD WORLD’S NONVIABLE STATES A MAJOR SOURCE OF CONFLICT IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY...........................96 Table 2..................................................101 WHEN THE WATER RUNS OUT......................................................111 TRANSNATIONAL AIR, WATER, AND LAND DEGRADATION PROBLEMS.............................................124 NUCLEAR CONFLICT AND NONPROLIFERATIO...

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Air War College Maxwell Paper Anthology, a compilation of the award-winning papers from our 2010 graduates. Since we published the first Maxwell Paper in May 1996, we have distributed 47 papers demonstrating the highest level of analytical creativity and scholarship. The 12 papers presented here provide insight into and promote discussion on topics of importance to senior leaders....

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48 ARTICULATION BEYOND THE BUMPER STICKER: REVAMPING AN INCOMPLETE AND CONFUSING MASTER TENET . . . . . . . . .1 Col Rolanda Burnett Sr., USAF 49 THE DANGEROUS DECLINE IN THE US MILITARY’S INFECTIOUS-DISEASE VACCINE PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Col Kenneth E. Hall, USAF 50 LEGAL AND ETHICAL ASPECTS OF THE DECISION FOR WAR: A CASE STUDY . . . . . .39 Lt Col Michael Rafter, Canadian Forces 51 DEVELOPING A US EUROPEAN COMMAND INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE STRATEGY FOR FY 2010–15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Lt Col Kevin M. Coyne, USAF 52 INFLUENCE OPERATIONS AND THE INTERNET: A 21ST CENTURY ISSUE: LEGAL, DOCTRINAL, AND POLICY CHALLENGES IN THE CYBER WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Col Rebecca A. Keller, USAF 53 US NATIONAL SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC . . .85 Lt Col Lars Helmrich, Swedish Air Force 54 CONSIDERATIONS FOR A US NUCLEAR FORCE STRUCTURE BELOW A 1,000-WARHEAD LIMIT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Lt Col David J. Baylor, USAF 55 GETTING WAR FIGHTERS WHAT THEY NEED, WH...

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Contents Chapter Page BOARD OF REVIEWERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi A Perspective from the Commander in Chief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Barack H. Obama SECTION I: RELIGIOUS EXPRESSION 1 Religion in the Military: Finding the Proper Balance . . . . . . . . 15 Barry W. Lynn 2 Burning Bibles and Censoring Prayers: Is That Defending Our Constitution? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Gordon James Klingenschmitt 3 The Need for (More) New Guidance Regarding Religious Expression in the Air Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Paula M. Grant 4 The One True Religion in the Military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 James E. Parco and Barry S. Fagin 5 Against All Enemies, Foreign and Domestic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Chris Rodda 6 Religious...

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Interagency Fratricide: Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors that affected both interagency processes and policy outcomes during the Persian Gulf War (1990–91) and the early stages of the Bosnia crisis (1993–95). Going one-on-one with members of Washington’s policy elite who were involved directly in these two cases, the author demonstrates that the US government’s approach to termination policy proved fragmented and personality driven. She systematically presents evidence to support the study’s conclusion, revealing that the nature of the gap between diplomats and war fighters will consistently produce policies that bring about cease-fire in the form of war termination, but fail to address the underlying causes and conditions that generated conflict (and, potentially, war). These issues must be resolved if the US government hopes to improve the social and political conditions of those embroiled in conflict while at the same time bolstering a security posture favorable to US interests in the aftermath of intervention. The three sections of this work thematically present...

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PART I Framing the Problem 1 CONFLICT TERMINATION WITHIN A BUREAUCRATIC ENVIRONMENT . . . . . . . . . 3 Interagency Decision Making via Negotiation. . . . . . . . . . 5 The Efficacy of the Policy-Making Process . . 14 Outline of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2 RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY: INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP CHOICE . . . . . . . 27 Decision-Making Approaches: Units of Analysis as Delimiters . . . . . . . . . 28 Rational Choice Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Groups as “Less than Rational” Actors . . . . .41 Rationale for Alternative Approaches . . . . . .48 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3 CONFLICT TERMINATION MODELS . . . . . . 61 Points or Processes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 Rational Actor Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 4 THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SYSTEM. . . . . . . . . . 85 Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Approach . . . . 85 US Government Decision Making . . . . . . . . 92 ...